This analysis primarily focuses on data from Service Manager Annual Information Returns (SMAIR), obtained through Freedom of Information Requests. We were provided with data for years 2020-2023.
For this analysis I am focused on housing stock. This data suggests certain categories of units have undergone significant loss. The next step of this work should be to contextualize what is happening and engage relevant service managers. Points of opportunity are laid out through the analysis.
There are 222,311 total units reported by Service Managers in 2023 annual report. This is a large portion of the total community housing stock estimated by CMHC in their 2023 Social and Affordable Housing Survey.
CMHC estimated that there are 65,000 units in Ontario that receive funding only from the Federal government, and 44,000 units that have no funding agreement.
NOTE: based on conversations I’ve had with CMHC to better understand their methodology, I suspect the overall count is an overestimation. They stated they are improving their methodology for Ontario, including working closely with MMAH, and the soon to be released updated survey data should have big improvements.
New supply is largely driven by National Housing Strategy programs. Here is an overview of units completed up to the end of 2024, as well as units in the pipeline. New units completed are fairly modest, but units in the pipeline will hopefully outpace the gradual loss of units being observed within the HSA framework, which is broken down further in this report.
Note that I excluded units that are delivered through “Private Enterprise” when they are the lead proponent of the project.
Note: this plot is interactive. Hover over the bars to see more details about the funding amounts and programs.
Note: this plot is interactive. Look at the icons on the top right of each plot to enable different interactive actions, such as scrolling in or zooming. Hover over the bars to see more details about the funding amounts and programs.
Note: this plot is interactive. Look at the icons on the top right of each plot to enable different interactive actions, such as scrolling in or zooming. Hover over the bars to see more details about the funding amounts and programs.
Here is a better look at change in unit types since 2020. There is a gradual loss of RGI units, and an increase Low-end of Market (LEM) and RGI households with above household income limits (HILs). Unless there were recent changes, within 2020-2022 data, it was indicated that above HIL and low-end of market do not count towards service level standards. The “unknown” category is an unknown mix of LEM and above HIL units.
Note: this plot is interactive. Look at the icons on the top right of each plot to enable different interactive actions, such as scrolling in or zooming. Hover over the bars to see more details about the funding amounts and programs.
Factors behind these changes:
Questions:
The following figures show the total unit count change and percent change since 2020, the first year of available data.
Note: this plot is interactive. Look at the icons on the top right of each plot to enable different interactive actions, such as scrolling in or zooming. Hover over the bars to see more details about the funding amounts and programs.
Question: