This analysis primarily focuses on data from Service Manager Annual Information Returns (SMAIR), obtained through Freedom of Information Requests. We were provided with data for years 2020-2023.

For this analysis I am focused on housing stock. This data suggests certain categories of units have undergone significant loss. The next step of this work should be to contextualize what is happening and engage relevant service managers. Points of opportunity are laid out through the analysis.

1 Community Housing Stock Breakdown

  • There are 222,311 total units reported by Service Managers in 2023 annual report. This is a large portion of the total community housing stock estimated by CMHC in their 2023 Social and Affordable Housing Survey.

  • CMHC estimated that there are 65,000 units in Ontario that receive funding only from the Federal government, and 44,000 units that have no funding agreement.

  • NOTE: based on conversations I’ve had with CMHC to better understand their methodology, I suspect the overall count is an overestimation. They stated they are improving their methodology for Ontario, including working closely with MMAH, and the soon to be released updated survey data should have big improvements.

1.1 New Supply of Community Housing

New supply is largely driven by National Housing Strategy programs. Here is an overview of units completed up to the end of 2024, as well as units in the pipeline. New units completed are fairly modest, but units in the pipeline will hopefully outpace the gradual loss of units being observed within the HSA framework, which is broken down further in this report.

Note that I excluded units that are delivered through “Private Enterprise” when they are the lead proponent of the project.

Note: this plot is interactive. Hover over the bars to see more details about the funding amounts and programs.

2 Service Manager Unit Breakdown

  • These figures display the total amount of units that Service Managers reported to MMAH in the SMAIR.
  • The increased unit count in 2023 is not due to new activity, but rather expansion on reporting. The Ministry of Health (MOH) and Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services (MCS) appears for the first time in SMAIR 2023. As these ministries’ funding and units were not tracked in prior years of SMAIR, they will be excluded from following change-over-time analyses to ensure consistency.
  • Hamilton did not report for 2023, so I used their 2022 numbers for 2023.
  • New builds funded under programs like COCHI and OPHI would be included in these counts, but I cannot confirm which program they would fall under. MMAH did not provide any insight upon reaching out.
  • I explored “service agreement” data, but I suspect this data was reported incorrectly or inconsistently, and appeared too unreliable to base any analysis off.

Note: this plot is interactive. Look at the icons on the top right of each plot to enable different interactive actions, such as scrolling in or zooming. Hover over the bars to see more details about the funding amounts and programs.

2.1 How much is Service Manager stock changing?

2.1.1 Total units by unit type and program

  • To better reflect trends in community housing stock over time, the Ministry of Health (MOH) and Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services (MCS) were removed since they only reported in 2023.
  • Following figures will display changes better, but overall we see a very small loss of units under Ontario’s community housing system.

Note: this plot is interactive. Look at the icons on the top right of each plot to enable different interactive actions, such as scrolling in or zooming. Hover over the bars to see more details about the funding amounts and programs.

Here is a better look at change in unit types since 2020. There is a gradual loss of RGI units, and an increase Low-end of Market (LEM) and RGI households with above household income limits (HILs). Unless there were recent changes, within 2020-2022 data, it was indicated that above HIL and low-end of market do not count towards service level standards. The “unknown” category is an unknown mix of LEM and above HIL units.

Note: this plot is interactive. Look at the icons on the top right of each plot to enable different interactive actions, such as scrolling in or zooming. Hover over the bars to see more details about the funding amounts and programs.

2.1.2 Unit count change since 2020

  • Most programs are seeing decreases in unit count, with the exception of Rent Supplement, Service Agreements and Public Housing.
  • Rent supplements are growing rapidly, but growth stems almost entirely from Toronto. There is an actual decline in Rent Supplements across Ontario when removing Toronto, as shown in the following figure.

Factors behind these changes:

  • Expiry of operating agreements.
  • New federally funded projects (e.g. Affordable Housing Fund, Rapid Housing Initiative) being added to the system (note that these are small numbers, relatively speaking).
  • Units being reclassified. For instance, some projects have been transferred to local housing corporations, which would transition unit counts into the Public Housing category.
  • Projects temporarily out of service, or reoccupying sites.
  • Data tracking adjustments / errors.

Questions:

  • What is the proportion of rent supplements going to private non-profits versus for-profits?
  • How much of the change is attributed to units leaving the system at end-of-agreement, and what happens to most of these units (e.g., do they go to market rates? Get sold? Loss to disrepair?)

2.1.3 Unit change by program and unit type

The following figures show the total unit count change and percent change since 2020, the first year of available data.

  • The Majority of new units are occurring in rent supplements. Rent supplements have seen an increase in low-end of market/RGI units with above household income limit households.
  • RGI units are being lost in public housing, Section 95 and Provincially Reformed housing projects.

Note: this plot is interactive. Look at the icons on the top right of each plot to enable different interactive actions, such as scrolling in or zooming. Hover over the bars to see more details about the funding amounts and programs.

2.1.4 Total Unit Change by SM Area

  • Hover over or zoom in to see unit count for each service manager.
  • Many regions had very little change at all, and a very select regions had large changes (more on these in the next figure).

2.1.5 Units Change by Program and Service Manager

  • This figure order SM regions from total growth in units, to total loss of units.
  • Toronto rent supplement accounts for a massive proportion of all new growth in units.

Question:

  • How much does COHB contribute to Toronto’s rent supplement growth?
  • Where does Toronto’s rent supplements go? Primarily for-profit landlords? Are any of these supplements tied to new construction?
  • Look into Toronto’s housing plan and TCHC annual report to see if they list recipients of rent supplements.